The Cobra Effect

The Cobra Effect: how linear thinking leads to unintended consequences

Have you ever tried to fix a problem, only to make things worse? That’s called the Cobra Effect—when an attempted solution results in unintended consequences. Because most of our cause-to-effect experiences involve very simple, direct relationships, we tend to think in terms of linear chain of events. But the world is much more complex than we realise. In a real-world system, there will be multiple reinforcing and balancing connections between events, resulting in often unpredictable feedback loops.

The term “Cobra Effect” originated during the time of the British rule of colonial India. The British government wanted to tackle the worrying number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi. Their strategy was to offer a bounty for every dead cobra. Creating this incentive was initially a successful strategy—many rewards were claimed and the number of cobra snakes spotted in Delhi started to decrease. However, the number of dead cobra snakes presented to the bounty office for the reward kept on rising. Why?

Turned out, enterprising people had started breeding cobra snakes to get the bounty. The government became aware of the scheme, and stopped offering the reward for dead cobra snakes. As a result, the cobra breeders set the now worthless animals free, increasing the cobra population in Delhi. This anecdote shows that the apparent solution to a problem can make a situation even worse.

Full article about linear thinking: https://nesslabs.com/cobra-effect